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Bayesian A/B Testing: A Hypothesis Test that Makes Sense

May 12, 2015 by Will Kurt

Confused by Hypothesis tesing used in A/B Tests? In this post we take a look at building an A/B from scratch the Bayesian way!

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May 12, 2015 /Will Kurt
May 2015, parameter estimation, hypothesis testing, popular
29 Comments

Using Bayes' Factor to Build a Voight-Kampff Test!

May 05, 2015 by Will Kurt

Learn about Bayes Factor by recreated the famous Voight-Kampff test from the movie Blade Runner.

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May 05, 2015 /Will Kurt
bayesian, May 2015
16 Comments

Bayesian Priors for Parameter Estimation

April 21, 2015 by Will Kurt

We've already looked at Bayesian Parameter Estimation, now we'll learn how to use Prior Probabilities in our Parameter Estimation to get better results.

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April 21, 2015 /Will Kurt
April 2015, parameter estimation
18 Comments

Parameter Estimation - The PDF, CDF and Quantile Function

April 14, 2015 by Will Kurt

Discover the fundamental of Bayesian Parameter estimation. Learn to use the Probability Density Function, Cumulative Distribution Function and Quantile Function to estimate unknown values in our data.

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April 14, 2015 /Will Kurt
parameter estimation, April 2015
9 Comments

Expectation and Variance from High School to Grad School

April 07, 2015 by Will Kurt

Many people find the ideas of Expectation and Variance confusing. In part this is because the way we view these concepts changes as our understanding grows in sophistication. In this post we'll look at the way these definitions change from their basic High School intro to the view of Rigorous Probability Theory.

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April 07, 2015 /Will Kurt
basics, variance and expectation, April 2015
13 Comments

Working with Probability Distributions

March 31, 2015 by Will Kurt

Learn about Discrete and Continuous probability distributions as well as the types of questions that they can both answers. This post also discusses the relationship between the Binomial and Beta distributions.

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March 31, 2015 /Will Kurt
basics, parameter estimation, March 2015
17 Comments

Monte Carlo Simulations in R

March 24, 2015 by Will Kurt

Monte Carlo simulations are very fun to write and can be incredibly useful for solving ticky math problems. In this post we explore how to write six very useful Monte Carlo simulations in R to get you thinking about how to use them on your own.

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March 24, 2015 /Will Kurt
March 2015, popular
25 Comments

Han Solo and Bayesian Priors

March 17, 2015 by Will Kurt

There is an iconic probability problem in The Empire Strikes Back! Han Solo is told that navigating an asteroid field is extremely unlikely to be successful. However not only does he navigate the asteroid field successfully, but we know he will. Learn how we can use Bayesian Priors to reconcile C3POs frequentist views on probability with our natural reasoning.

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March 17, 2015 /Will Kurt
popular, March 2015
39 Comments
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